mercoledì 29 marzo 2017

“The most contrarian theme”

Da questo report di BofA Merrill Lynch:

“Long-term market inefficiencies have increased: Given the abundance and improvement in data, analysis and tools, oddly enough, what should be an increasingly efficient market shows some signs of becoming less efficient.”

“Fundamentals win over long time horizons: The declining interest, assets and resources devoted to fundamental analysis suggests a significant opportunity in our view. Fundamental investing is not dead, far from it, but seems to require patience.

Over the long term, valuation is almost all that matters: Valuations have historically explained 60-90% of subsequent returns over a 10-year time horizon, with the price to normalized earnings ratio (our preferred valuation metric) explaining 80-90% of returns over the subsequent 10 years (Chart 13).”

Time really is money… at least for stocks. As investment time horizons lengthen, the probability of losing money in stocks generally decreases. […] Moreover, time horizon arbitrage is unique to equities: other asset classes (for example, commodities, as shown below) do not exhibit such characteristics (Chart 14).”

Niente altro da aggiungere.

mercoledì 22 marzo 2017

Macro post: USD

Una delle priorità di Trump è di riportare negli US i posti di lavoro persi negli ultimi anni a causa della globalizzazione (“Make America Great Again”). Le soluzioni proposte sono:
  1. tagli alle tasse
  2. deregulation
  3. investimenti in infrastrutture